Goldman Sachs has released a research note predicting a slowdown in U.S. job growth for January, with hiring expected to fall short of market expectations. The bank forecasts nonfarm payrolls to increase by approximately 45,000, which is significantly lower than the consensus forecast of around 70,000. This projection is based on several factors, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics' birth-death model, which could subtract a substantial number of jobs from the headline payroll growth. However, Goldman also highlights several offsetting forces that could limit downside risks, such as improvements in layoff indicators and rebounds in retail and construction employment. Despite these factors, the overall narrative suggests a gradual cooling of the U.S. labor market conditions rather than an abrupt deterioration.
