A Terrifying Prospect: The End of Nuclear Restraint and the Looming Arms Race
In a world where nuclear tensions are already high, the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) has left a gaping hole in global security. This treaty, negotiated by President Obama in 2010, was more than just a limit on warheads; it provided a comprehensive framework for verification and compliance between the US and Russia, who together possess an astonishing 87% of the world's nuclear weapons.
The treaty's end marks a significant shift in the global strategic landscape, occurring amidst China's aggressive military expansion and with one of the signatories, Russia, engaged in the largest land war in Europe since World War II. Western European powers, including the UK and France, are now grappling with how to enhance their nuclear deterrence as the US distances itself from NATO.
Former Australian Foreign Minister Gareth Evans, a co-chair of the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament, describes the treaty's demise as a "terrifying prospect" and criticizes President Trump for his lack of responsibility. Australian academic Tilman Ruff, a key figure in the Nobel Peace Prize-winning International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), echoes these sentiments, warning that the treaty's end will "bring a definitive and alarming end to nuclear restraint between the two powers" and potentially accelerate a global nuclear arms race.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), a nonprofit organization focused on reducing nuclear threats, agrees that the world is entering a period of unconstrained nuclear build-up unless the US and Russia agree to maintain limits on their forces. NTI highlights the added complexity of China's nuclear expansion and emerging destabilizing technologies, making this period more challenging than the Cold War arms race.
The implications of the treaty's expiration are further compounded by the tense military situation in Europe. The UK and France, the two existing Western European nuclear powers, are discussing how to align their nuclear weapons programs and their role within NATO. Other European countries, such as Sweden, Poland, and Germany, are also considering developing their own nuclear capabilities, as reported by The Economist.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has stated that European nations are discussing a shared nuclear umbrella to complement their security arrangements with the US. While Germany is currently banned from developing nuclear weapons under the "Two Plus Four Agreement," the Chancellor suggests that treaty obligations do not prevent discussions with partners like Britain and France.
The situation is further complicated by Russia's suspension of its commitment to the New START. In February 2023, President Vladimir Putin cited US support for Ukraine and other hostile Western actions as reasons for Russia's decision. While Russia has adhered to the overall numerical limits on weapons, it has not complied with inspection processes, leading the US to suspend its obligations to allow Russian inspections of its arsenal.
In a surprising turn of events, following the Trump-Putin Alaska summit, Putin proposed continuing to observe the caps on weapons numbers for another year. Trump initially welcomed the idea but later threatened to resume nuclear testing, minutes before meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump's decision to instruct the Department of War to start testing nuclear weapons immediately was a stark departure from the spirit of the treaty.
In a 2026 interview with The New York Times, Trump downplayed the treaty's expiration, stating, "We'll just do a better agreement." He suggested that China should be a part of any extension, believing that President Xi would be a willing participant. Trump also hinted at the possibility of involving other players.
Analysts argue that the inspection regime is crucial for building and maintaining trust, just as important as the limits on weapons numbers. The end of the New START treaty has left the door wide open to a new and potentially more complex nuclear arms race, with far-reaching implications for global security and stability.
